If the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has voted the way I anticipate they have, Monday morning’s Oscar nominations will be followed by an assured clamor that the slate is too blowing and too white.
While African American actors like Eddie Murphy, Lupita Nyong’o, Jamie Foxx, Wesley Snipes and Alfre Woodard all accept shots at landing nominations, as do Asian or Asian-American actors Awkwafina, Zhao Shuzhen and Song Kang Ho, I apprehend that there will be absolutely one non-white acting nominee, “Harriet” brilliant Cynthia Erivo, forth with two Hispanic ones, Antonio Banderas and Jennifer Lopez.
And alike admitting Greta Gerwig could able-bodied accept a Best Administrator nomination, I doubtable she’ll be belted out by Pedro Almodovar, who will ample out a actual all-embracing but absolutely blowing slate.
The Academy has developed essentially and become decidedly added all-embracing in the aftermost few years, and we’re still aggravating to barometer the aftereffect that will accept on nominations. But with the 92nd Academy Awards advancing up in a hurry, here’s what I apprehend to see on Monday morning.
Best PictureThe above brotherhood awards assume to announce appealing acutely that the top bristles is “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood,” “The Irishman,” “1917,” “Parasite” and “Jojo Rabbit.” Beyond those five, “Joker” absolutely seems to accept abundant abutment to get in, as does “Marriage Story.”
The capricious cardinal of nominees in this class causes abashing from there. “Little Women” and “Ford v Ferrari” ability be the abutting two films in line, with the above captivation a slight bend as the alone top adversary with a predominantly changeable ensemble. But “Bombshell,” “The Two Popes,” “Knives Out” and “The Farewell” accept a adventitious to blooper in as able-bodied – and it wouldn’t be out of the question, accustomed the way the votes are counted in this category, for a baby but amorous accidental to get a abruptness best for “Pain and Glory” or “Uncut Gems.”
Predicted nominees:“The Irishman”“Jojo Rabbit”“Joker”“Little Women”“Marriage Story”“1917”“Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”“Parasite”
If the cardinal of nominees goes to nine:“Ford v Ferrari”
And if it somehow goes to 10 (which it won’t):“Bombshell”
Best DirectorThe Admiral Brotherhood nominated Bong Joon Ho for “Parasite,” Martin Scorsese for “The Irishman,” Quentin Tarantino for “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood,” Sam Mendes for “1917” and Taika Waititi for “Jojo Rabbit,” which would assume to angle them in acceptable account at the Oscars. But the brotherhood and the Academy accept had the aforementioned slate of nominees alone bristles times in 72 years – added often, four of the DGA’s nominees accept Oscar nominations and one doesn’t.
Waititi seems the likeliest to be larboard out, because Bong, Scorsese, Tarantino and Mendes all feel like locks here. But the fifth aperture is absolutely up in the air, with the prime candidates, in accession to Waititi, conceivably actuality Greta Gerwig for “Little Women,” Noah Baumbach for “Marriage Story,” Todd Phillips for “Joker” and Pedro Almodovar for “Pain and Glory.” The Admiral Annex of the Academy isn’t accepted for aggravating to accompany in assortment for its own sake, but it nominated Gerwig for “Lady Bird” two years ago and could calmly do so again. And again there’s Almodovar, whose blur apparently won’t get a Best Picture best but is so acutely claimed that the annex ability accord him a best anyway. It’s adamantine to acquisition abundant accepted arena in the admiral that are disregarded by the DGA but nominated by the Academy recently, but both of them aftermost year were European directors, and the annex is acceptable added international. That may accord Almodovar a slight edge.
One added contraction is that the annex has been accepted to bypass admiral who assume to be locks (Ben Affleck for “Argo,” Kathryn Bigelow for “Zero Aphotic Thirty”) in favor of added offbeat choices. If that happens, the Safdie brothers would be an camp but aces best for that added atom for their adventurous and adamant “Uncut Gems.”
Predicted nominees:Pedro Almodovar, “Pain and Glory”Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”Sam Mendes, “1917”Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”
Best ActorIt’s absurd to brainstorm a slate of nominees in this class that doesn’t accommodate Joaquin Phoenix for “Joker,” Adam Driver for “Marriage Story” and (probably) Leonardo DiCaprio for “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood.” And I debris to accept that voters won’t admit Antonio Banderas’ admirable achievement in “Pain and Glory,” which has won at Cannes and with the New York and L.A. blur critics.
But that alone leaves one aperture for at atomic eight guys who deserve a best and accept a adventitious to get one: Robert De Niro for “The Irishman,” Jonathan Pryce for “The Two Popes,” Eddie Murphy for “Dolemite Is My Name,” Adam Sandler in “Uncut Gems,” Christian Bale in “Ford v Ferrari,” Taron Egerton for “Rocketman,” George MacKay for “1917,” Michael B. Jordan for “Just Mercy” …
It’s not a acceptable assurance that De Niro was bypassed by both the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild, but he’s still way too appalling to dismiss. It’s apparently amid him, Pryce, Egerton and Murphy – and while I’m tempted to say Murphy, I’ll go with De Niro in the blur that will be one of the leaders in all-embracing nominations.
Predicted nominees:Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”Robert De Niro, “The Irishman”Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
Best ActressGolden Globes champ Renee Zellweger is the bright frontrunner, “Bombshell” brilliant Charlize Theron the aphotic horse with a adventitious to upset. Scarlett Johansson and Saoirse Ronan are acceptable nominees for “Marriage Story” and “Little Women,” respectively. And aloof as in Best Actor, that fifth aperture is a mystery.
It’s additionally a aperture that could mercifully advice the Academy escape accession #OscarsSoWhite debacle, because its contenders accommodate Cynthia Erivo for “Harriet,” Alfre Woodard for “Clemency” and Lupita Nyong’o for a catchy achievement in “Us” that should be accepting far added awards attention. Awkwafina additionally has a attempt for “The Farewell,” but this seems acceptable to go to Erivo, who’s attractive to alike Lady Gaga’s ability from aftermost year of landing Best Extra and Best Aboriginal Song nominations.
Predicted nominees:Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women”Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”Renee Zellweger, “Judy”
Best Acknowledging ActorIn a class that will be abounding of actors who were absolutely giving co-lead performances, you can’t escape the three guys whose aftermost names alpha with P: Al Pacino and Joe Pesci for “The Irishman” and Brad Pitt for “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood.”
Tom Hanks would assume to be a affirmation for “A Admirable Day in the Neighborhood” – but the Academy hasn’t nominated him aback 2000, a rather arresting abiding boycott that has amid “The Road to Perdition,” “Charlie Wilson’s War,” “Captain Phillips,” “Saving Mr. Banks,” “Bridge of Spies,” “Sully” and “The Post.” Still, they accept to be nice to a guy who aloof played Mr. Rogers, don’t they?
Other contenders accommodate Anthony Hopkins for “The Two Popes,” SAG Awards appointee Jamie Foxx for “Just Mercy,” Willem Dafoe for “The Lighthouse,” Wesley Snipes for “Dolemite Is My Name,” Alan Alda for “Marriage Story” and what could be the best adorable surprise, adept Korean amateur Song Kang Ho for “Parasite.” Hopkins ability accept an bend because he’s the best way to admit “The Two Popes,” a blur that at one point seemed acceptable to be an all-embracing contender.
Predicted nominees:Tom Hanks, “A Admirable Day in the Neighborhood”Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”Al Pacino, “The Irishman”Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”
Best Acknowledging ActressThe three locks attending to be Laura Dern for “Marriage Story,” Jennifer Lopez for “Hustlers” and Margot Robbie for “Bombshell.” (Robbie will additionally get some votes for “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood,” but Oscar rules don’t acquiesce an amateur to accept two nominations in the aforementioned category.) And if “Jojo Rabbit” is as able as the brotherhood awards accomplish it out to be, Scarlett Johansson will acceptable account a acknowledging best to go with her “Marriage Story” Best Extra nod.
And again what? Kathy Bates will apparently be aching by the altercation over the inaccuracies in “Richard Jewel.” Annette Bening will apparently be helped by the actuality that she played Democratic agent Diane Feinstein in “The Report,” a appropriate blur in today’s political climate. Nicole Kidman could add a additional “Bombshell” best as a once-powerful man stands accused of animal delinquency in a New York courtroom. Florence Pugh could be helped by a year that has additionally included “Midsommar” and “Fighting With My Family” in accession to her standout role in “Little Women.” And 75-year-old Chinese extra Zhao Shuzhen could acreage a best for “The Farewell” because, well, everybody loves Zhao Shuzhen in “The Farewell.”
Bening and Shuzhen are strong, but I doubtable it’s Pugh’s year.
Predicted nominees:Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit”Jennifer Lopez, “Hustlers”Florence Pugh, “Little Women”Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”
Best Acclimatized ScreenplayThis may be area we acquisition out how able “Joker” absolutely is. While “The Irishman,” “Little Women” and “Jojo Rabbit” are accessible choices and WGA nominees, and while you’d apprehend the entertainingly communicative “The Two Popes” to balance from actuality disregarded by the brotherhood (which slotted it in the original, not acclimatized category), “Joker” is a beneath archetypal autograph appointee than, say, “A Admirable Day in the Neighborhood,” “Dark Waters” or “Just Mercy.”
Still, the “Joker” calligraphy was nominated by the WGA and by BAFTA, and it’s the extreme affair from a approved comic-book movie.
Predicted nominees:“The Irishman”“Jojo Rabbit”“Joker”“Little Women”“The Two Popes”
Best Aboriginal ScreenplayIn abounding ways, this class is a moment of accuracy for “1917.” The blur will amount up on below-the-line nominations, to be abiding – but if it wants to absolutely attempt for a Best Picture win, it could absolutely use a cine best to appearance that voters anticipate of it as added than a abstruse accomplishment. It got one from the Writers Guild, it didn’t get one from BAFTA, and it’s absolutely on the balloon here, forth with “Knives Out,” “The Farewell,” “Ford v Ferrari,” “Dolemite Is My Name” and a few others.
Not on the bubble: “Parasite,” “Marriage Story” and “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood,” the aftermost of which wasn’t acceptable at the WGA but is a lock here.
Predicted nominees:“Knives Out”“Marriage Story”“1917”“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”“Parasite”
Best CinematographyThe American Society of Cinematographers nominated “1917,” “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood,” “The Irishman,” “Joker” and “Ford v Ferrari.” The aboriginal three of those will assuredly echo with the Academy’s Cinematographers Branch, but the aftermost two ability be accessible and could be replaced by “The Lighthouse,” “Parasite,” “Marriage Story” or “A Hidden Life.”
Since the ASC and the Academy usually alone accede on four out of five, and aback the Academy generally gets adventuresome on the best that doesn’t match, I’m academic that “Ford v Ferrari” drops out and “The Lighthouse” slides in.
Predicted nominees:“The Irishman”“Joker”“The Lighthouse”“1917”“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Best Blur EditingThe aftermost big cine that was advised to attending as if it were a distinct shot, “Birdman,” didn’t get an alteration nomination. Will “1917” ache a agnate fate, alike admitting it absolutely contains bristles or six dozen anxiously hidden cuts? Maybe not, aback its aggregation has been actual alive in putting editor Lee Smith out advanced and talking about his contribution.
On added fronts, the active “Ford v Ferrari” is fabricated for this category, as is the anatomy of “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood” and the advised rhythms of “The Irishman.” (Will it aching that aftermost blur that lots of bodies anticipate it’s too long? Maybe, but it’ll advice that the blackout comes at the easily of the allegorical Thelma Schoonmaker.)
Then there’s “Marriage Story” and “Parasite,” both of them quiet but intricately structured; “Joker,” bolder and brasher; and “Uncut Gems,” the ultimate editor’s bout de force but a longshot aloof because it is so advisedly and deliciously assaultive.
Predicted nominees:“Ford v Ferrari”“The Irishman”“1917”“Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”“Parasite”
Best Aboriginal ScoreThomas Newman, with 14 nominations and not a distinct win, is the frontrunner for “1917.” Golden Globe, Emmy and SCL champ Hildur Gudnadottir ability be the one with the best adventitious to exhausted him for “Joker.” They’re both all but assured nominations.
Beyond those two, the Oscars’ shortlist of 15 array gives voters a abundance of distinctive, altered and agitating agreeable experiences. Alexandre Desplat’s “Little Women” is august and elegant; Theodore Shapiro’s “Bombshell” puts changeable choir advanced and center, as does the movie; Marco Beltrani and Buck Sanders’ “Ford v Ferrari” borrows from its 1960s ambience to actualize a antic and active active bedrock soundtrack; “Marriage Story” is as affectionate and as ablaze on its anxiety as best of Randy Newman’s scores; and Alan Silvestri’s “Avengers: Endgame” is an ballsy activity account that concludes with some of the best admirable and affecting cues of the year.
And that’s alone bisected the shortlist, which additionally includes the aberrant choral compositions of “Us” and “The Farewell,” the baking applesauce of “Motherless Brooklyn,” the aphotic soundscapes of “The King,” the agreeable brightness of “Frozen II” and the affecting but antic compositions of “Jojo Rabbit” and “Pain and Glory.”
And, oh yeah, there’s 51-time appointee John Williams with his final “Star Wars” score. Yes, aback you anticipate of “Star Wars” music, you anticipate of what he wrote in the ’70s and ’80s (the capacity of which are acclimated abundantly in “The Rise of Skywalker,” but amidst by abundant new music to accomplish this a new score). But how on apple do voters abjure the aftermost John Williams “Star Wars” score?
With a affluent and assorted acreage to accept from, voters aloof ability bypass Williams in favor of “Jojo Rabbit” or “Ford v Ferrari.” But I wouldn’t bet on it.
Predicted nominees:“Joker”“Little Women”“Marriage Story”“1917”“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”
Best Aboriginal SongThis is accession class area the acreage was narrowed bottomward to 15 by a aboriginal annular of voting, eliminating Taylor Swift’s new song for “Cats” but abrogation Elton John (twice), Beyonce, Cynthia Erivo, Pharrell Williams Diane Warren and others.
You accept to amount that Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez, afterwards acceptable for “Frozen” and “Coco,” will be aback for “Frozen II.” Elton John seems all but assured to acreage a nom for his and Bernie Taupin’s song “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from “Rocketman” (over his “Lion King” song “Never Too Late”), and Cynthia Erivo and Joshuah Brian Campbell will acceptable be represented by “Stand Up,” the song from “Harriet” for which they aloof won an accolade at the aboriginal Society of Composers and Lyricists Awards.
But that still leaves Beyonce for a new song from “The Lion King,” Pharrell Williams for one from “The Black Godfather,” Radiohead’s Thom Yorke for “Motherless Brooklyn,” Randy Newman for “Toy Adventure 4,” and the appalling aggregation of Benj Pasek, Justin Paul and Alan Menken for “Aladdin.” One from that accumulation will acceptable get in (Beyonce?), and apparently one from three accomplished songs accounting for abate films: Diane Warren’s adorning “I’m Standing With You” from “Breakthrough,” Kathryn Bostic’s sultry, gospel-spiked “High Above the Water” from “Toni Morrison: The Pieces I Am” and Mary Steenburgen, Kate York and Caitlin Smith’s boastful “Glasgow” from “Wild Rose.” It’s absurd to go adjoin 10-time appointee Warren, but I accept a activity “Glasgow” could be the one.
Watch out for two agrarian cards, though. One is “Da Bronx” from the documentary “The Bronx, USA,” because the song is accounting by songwriting legends Charles Fox (a above Music Annex governor) and Paul Williams. The added is “A Glass of Soju,” the end-credits song from “Parasite.” It’s in Korean and it’s not subtitled, but it would be accession way to address that movie, and accession best for its administrator and the song’s lyricist, Bong Joon Ho.
Predicted nominees:“Into the Unknown” from “Frozen II”“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” from “Rocketman”“Spirit” from “The Lion King”“Stand Up” from “Harriet”“Glasgow” from “Wild Rose”
Best Apparel DesignBig ‘n’ adorned designs still appearance up in this category, but in contempo years they haven’t arise abutting to assertive the nominations. Instead, attending for aeon films of added contempo vintage, including “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood,” “Rocketman,” “The Irishman” and “Dolemite Is My Name.” But “Little Women” and “Downton Abbey” are still able contenders, with the above conceivably activity fresher than the latter. “Jojo Rabbit,” “Joker” and “The Two Popes” are absolutely in the mix as well.
Predicted nominees:“Dolemite Is My Name”“Jojo Rabbit”“Little Women”“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”“Rocketman”
Best Production DesignAs in apparel design, abundant aeon reconstructions are on the abate in this category, replaced by films that attending aback a few decades rather than a few centuries. Abounding of the apparel nominees should appearance up actuality as well, admitting the calibration of “The Irishman,” the ball of “Joker” and the accurate challenges of “1917” should accomplish them able contenders as well. And aback the accomplished point of “Parasite” is to dramatize the aberration amid affluent and poor, the architecture of the film’s two homes will acceptable affect voters as well.
Predicted nominees:“The Irishman”“Little Women”“1917”“Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”“Parasite”
Best Architecture and HairstylingThe shortlist has narrowed the acreage to 10, and for the aboriginal time the slate of nominees will abide of bristles films, not aloof three. And here’s the affair to remember, for starters: In contempo years, voters in this class accept admired architecture artists who transform actors into added acclaimed people: “Vice,” “Darkest Hour,” “The Iron Lady” … That’s acceptable account for “Bombshell,” which makes Charlize Theron attending like Megyn Kelly and Nicole Kidman attending like Gretchen Carlson; “Judy,” which makes Renee Zellweger attending like Judy Garland; and “Rocketman,” which makes Taron Egerton attending (a little) like Elton John.
“Dolemite Is My Name” transforms Eddie Murphy as well, but best voters don’t apperceive what Rudy Ray Moore looked like so they may not accept the aforementioned akin of acknowledgment for the work. None of the added nominees accommodate the affectionate of prosthetic assignment that has led to nominations for films like “Border,” “Wonder” and “Guardians of the Galaxy,” admitting “Maleficent: Mistress of Evil” comes closest. This may arise bottomward to affected architecture (“Downton Abbey,” “Little Women”) v. tougher architecture (“1917,” “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”). The calibration of that aftermost blur may tip the scales in its favor if “Maleficent” doesn’t grab the voters.
Predicted nominees:“Bombshell”“Joker”“Judy”“Rocketman”“Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”
Best Complete EditingThe two complete categories may able-bodied be accumulated into a distinct class in a year or two, but for now they’re still separate. Complete alteration is advised to account the conception of bogus sounds, and the nominees are usually big, loud movies, which this year absolutely agency the brand of “Ford v Ferrari,” “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker,” “Avengers: Endgame,” “1917” and “Joker.” Musicals like “Rocketman” are a basic in the complete bond class but generally drain over actuality (though conceivably not this year), while the calibration of “Once Upon a Time … in America” could be actuating as well.
Predicted nominees:“Ford v Ferrari”“Joker”“1917”“Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”
Best Complete MixingThe complete bond class ceremoniousness the way all complete elements are chip into a film’s soundtrack – and while the calendar of nominees is consistently agnate to the one in Best Complete Editing, it generally swaps in a music-heavy film, which this year will acceptable be “Rocketman.”And if the impeccably accumulated “Parasite” sneaks into categories like this one, its competitors had bigger watch out.
Predicted nominees:“Ford v Ferrari”“Joker”“1917”“Rocketman”“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”
Best Beheld EffectsOf the 10 films on the VFX shortlist, you can apparently aphorism out “Cats” and its agenda beard that so abounding bodies activate creepy. But while the reviews were alloyed on the agenda de-aging done on the advance actors in “The Irishman,” it has a actual acceptable adventitious of advancing in this race, as does the assignment that was done in “1917” to not alone extend backgrounds and add action footage but to braid calm altered takes into what appears to be a distinct seamless shot.
In added acceptable VFX work, “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker,” “Avengers: Endgame” and maybe the Beheld Effects Society’s baton in nominations, “Alita: Action Angel,” arise to accept the arch chance, admitting “Terminator: Aphotic Fate” could blooper in. But the 800-pound apache in this class is “The Lion King,” in which the absolute cine is a beheld aftereffect already you get accomplished a distinct aperture attempt of a sunrise.Lion, yes. Cats, no.
Predicted nominees:“Avengers: Endgame”“The Irishman”“The Lion King”“1917”“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”
Best All-embracing Affection FilmEvery altercation about this class begins with all parties accepting the actuality that “Parasite,” “Pain and Glory” and “Les Miserables” are activity to be nominated, and the added seven shortlisted films are aggressive for the final two spots. And yes, that’s apparently right.
(OK, here’s one crazy scenario: Like the documentary voters aftermost year who ample “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?” was safe and didn’t charge their vote, maybe too abounding all-embracing voters ample that “Parasite” was a lock and they didn’t accept to vote for it. If that happened, which it didn’t, it would be the best affair accessible for “Parasite” in the Best Picture race, which it would absolutely win.)
To amount out who gets those final two spots, it helps to apperceive that the final voting this year is done by any Academy affiliate who sees the 10 shortlisted films in a amphitheater or on an AMPAS link. That puts the final anticipation in the easily of a beyond and added boilerplate accumulation of voters than the best committees that acclimated adjudge the final bristles – and it agency that the three arduous films that were put on the shortlist by an controlling board (most acceptable “Atlantics,” “The Painted Bird” and “Beanpole”) may accept a adamantine time advancing, admitting of the three “Atlantics” has a absolute shot.
“Honeyland,” the one documentary on the list, could able-bodied accomplish the final five, with the decades-spanning Estonian entry, “Truth and Justice,” a hardly best shot. But I’m academic that the final two will be Hungary’s “Those Who Remained,” which finds a new and affecting way to accord with the Holocaust by agilely absorption on those who survived and backpack the brainy scars; and Poland’s “Corpus Christi,” a alluring appearance abstraction of a captive who manages to canyon himself off as a priest.
Predicted nominees:“Corpus Christi”“Les Miserables”“Parasite”“Pain and Glory”“Those Who Remained”
Best Activated FeatureWith “Toy Adventure 4,” “Frozen II,” “How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World” and “Missing Link,” American studios accept produced abundant well-received action this year to about ample the slate of nominees – or to absolutely ample it, if you add “Abominable” to that list. But in contempo years, the nominees accept around consistently included one or two abate European or Japanese films, with the French blur “I Lost My Body” actuality this year’s likeliest entry.
Netflix is distributing “I Lost My Body,” and the catechism is whether accession of its activated films, “Klaus,” could acquisition a way in as well, or whether the Japanese blur “Weathering With You” could do so. It doesn’t assume likely, alike accustomed Oscar voters’ abhorrence to absolutely embrace sequels in this category.
Predicted nominees:“Frozen II”“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World”“I Lost My Body”“Missing Link”“Toy Adventure 4”
Best Documentary FeatureOf the 15 documentaries on a able shortlist, “American Factory” and “For Sama” won at the two capital album blur awards, the Cinema Eye Ceremoniousness and the IDA Documentary Awards; they’re acceptable to get a adventitious to add an Oscar to their bays cases. “Apollo 11,” the top-grossing doc appear in 2019, should accomplish it as well, admitting voters in the class haven’t consistently been affectionate to the array of commercially acknowledged films that could able-bodied win if they’re nominated.
With the added all-embracing architecture of the Documentary Branch, the Macedonian blur “Honeyland” has a able attempt at landing a best – and if there’s allowance abundant for accession Syrian documentaries afterwards “For Sama,” Feras Fayyad’s “The Cave” has lots of fans. (It apparently didn’t aching that the account that Fayyad was denied access into the U.S. bankrupt during the voting period.)
Other accessible nominees accommodate “The Bend of Democracy,” “The Great Hack,” “One Child Nation,” “Knock Bottomward the House” and “Midnight Family.”
Predicted nominees:“American Factory”“Apollo 11”“The Cave”“For Sama”“Honeyland”
Best Documentary ShortThere was a time aback the Oscar doc-short category, with its austere 40-minute time limit, was consistently abounding of serious, issue-oriented 39-minute-and-50-second documentaries either fabricated by HBO or acquired by the aggregation already the shortlist came out. These days, it’s bedeviled by Netflix, which has four of the 10 shortlisted films. But the accent on austere issues continues.
The abutting affair to a abiding affair in an ambiguous class is apparently “Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl),” which won the IDA Accolade and deals with adolescent women in Afghanistan acquirements to apprehend and address as able-bodied as skateboard. The Netflix films accord with Hurricane Maria (“After Maria”), the adverse California wildfires (“Fire in Paradise”), the radicalization of a Muslim adolescence (“Ghosts of Sugar Land”) and a coma-like adversity that affects refugee accouchement (“Life Overtakes Me”); “Fire in Paradise” is a agonizing account that hits abutting to home for Southern California voters (and Australian ones).
“St. Louis Superman” follows Ferguson activist, rapper and now Missouri accompaniment adumbrative Bruce Franks Jr., and is one of the aboriginal films to be appear by above HBO documentary arch Sheila Nevins, a titanic amount in the doc community, in her new role at MTV. And adept documentary administrator and ambassador Laura Nix is abaft the camera on “Run Walk Cha-Cha,” about a Vietnamese brace who fled their home country afterwards the war and reinvented themselves as amphitheater dancers in Southern California.
Predicted nominees:“Fire in Paradise”“Ghosts of Sugar Land”“Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)”“Run Walk Cha-Cha”“St. Louis Superman”
Best Activated ShortSeven of the 10 shortlisted activated shorts this year are fabricated alfresco the United States, with alone Pixar’s affecting “Kitbull,” Sony Pictures Animation’s candied “Hair Love” and Siqi Song’s affecting “Sister” advancing from U.S. based animators – and the aftermost of those films is a stop-motion allotment from a Chinese-American filmmaker who finds an artistic way to accord with China’s one-child policy. Two added entries, the Russian blur “Dcera (Daughter)” and the French “Memorable,” are additionally stop-motion, with the Student Academy Accolade champ “Dcera” decidedly noteworthy for the way in which it is filmed as if it’s a live-action drama.
Canadian animator Theodore Ushev’s “The Physics of Sorrow” feels like the best awe-inspiring blur on the shortlist; it uses the affecting encaustic painting address to acquaint a adventure that is allotment adventures and allotment mythology, addition from aged canicule to the end of the world. It is about bisected an hour long, as is “Mind My Mind,” a Dutch blur that animates the struggles of an autistic man to apprehend agreeable cues and activate a accord with a adolescent woman.
Predicted nominees:“Dcera (Daughter)”“Kitbull”“Mind My Mind”“The Physics of Sorrow”“Sister”
Best Live-Action ShortLast year’s live-action abbreviate class was acutely continued of films about accouchement in accident – and this year’s 10-film shortlist has a brace of those as well, starting with the Cesar-winning “Little Hands,” in which a annoyed artisan kidnaps his boss’ adolescent son. “Netfa Football Club” finds two kids acceptable biologic dealers, but starts with a bureaucracy agreeable and ends with a banana punchline.
International films accommodate “The Christmas Gift,” which uses a child’s letter to portray the paranoia and crisis of absolutist Nicolai Ceaucescu’s Romania; “Refugee,” which finds a new way to accord with the refugee crisis through a Syrian doctor; and “Saria,” in which administrator Bryan Buckley, best accepted as the baron of Super Bowl commercials, deals with dozens of orphans beat for their abandon in Guatemala.
Two shortlisted films from the U.S. additionally assume appropriate in the Academy’s candied spot: accomplished documentary affection and abbreviate appointee Marshall Curry’s “The Neighbors’ Window,” which starts out as a funny, adult riff on “Rear Window” and turns richer and deeper; and Asher Jelinski’s Student Academy Accolade champ “Miller & Son,” which explores gender character aural the blowing ambiance of an auto shop.
Predicted nominees:“Little Hands”“Miller & Son”“Nefta Football Club”“The Neighbors’ Window”“Refugee”
TheWrap Awards Editor Steve Pond offers his picks for this year’s Oscar nominees, in all 24 categories.
“Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”
If the cardinal of nominees goes to nine:
“Ford v Ferrari”
Pedro Almodóvar, “Pain and Glory”
Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”
Sam Mendes, “1917”
Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood” (pictured)
Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women”
Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
Renée Zellweger, “Judy” (pictured)
Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”
Robert De Niro, “The Irishman”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”
Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker” (pictured)
Best Acknowledging Actress
Laura Dern, “Marriage Story” (pictured)
Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit”
Jennifer Lopez, “Hustlers”
Florence Pugh, “Little Women”
Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”
Best Acknowledging Actor
Tom Hanks, “A Admirable Day in the Neighborhood” (pictured)
Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”
Al Pacino, “The Irishman”
Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”
Best Acclimatized Screenplay
“Little Women” (pictured)
“The Two Popes”
Best Aboriginal Screenplay
“Knives Out” (pictured)
“Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood” “Parasite”
“The Lighthouse” (pictured)
“Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood”
Best Blur Editing
“Ford v Ferrari” (pictured)
“Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”
Best Aboriginal Score
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” (pictured)
Best Aboriginal Song
“Into the Unknown” from “Frozen II”
“(I’m Gonna) Love M e Again” from “Rocketman”
“Spirit” from “The Lion King”
“Stand Up” from “Harriet”
“Glasgow” from “Wild Rose” (pictured)
Best Apparel Design
“Dolemite Is My Name”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Best Production Design
“The Irishman” (pictured)
“Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”
Best Architecture and Hairstyling
“Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”
Best Complete Editing
“Ford v Ferrari”
“Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”
Best Complete Mixing
“Ford v Ferrari” (pictured)
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”
Best Beheld Effects
“Avengers: Endgame” (pictured)
“The Lion King”
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”
Best All-embracing Affection Film
“Pain and Glory”
“Those Who Remained”
Best Activated Feature
“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World”
“I Lost My Body”
“Toy Adventure 4” (pictured)
Best Documentary Feature
“Apollo 11” (pictured)
Best Activated Short
“Mind My Mind”
“The Physics of Sorrow”
Best Live Activity Short
“Miller & Son”
“Nefta Football Club” (pictured)
“The Neighbors’ Window”
Best Documentary Short
“Fire in Paradise” (pictured)
“Ghosts of Sugar Land”
“Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You’re a Girl)”
“St. Louis Superman”